# TSLA bear case: 26 Sourced Claims, Contested Facts & Evidence Evidence that TSLA is overvalued or faces material downside. Authors: nineDan HTML: https://moyomap.com/maps/tsla-bear-case Markdown: https://moyomap.com/maps/tsla-bear-case.md License: HTML and markdown are for reading and citation. Bulk copying and AI training need a written license. See /terms and /developers#maps-data. Cite a claim as: MoyoMap, "TSLA bear case: 26 Sourced Claims, Contested Facts & Evidence", claim {id}, https://moyomap.com/maps/tsla-bear-case.md#{id}. “Moyo, a product of SenTeGuard Inc.” ### Tesla's share of the Chinese NEV market decreased to 8% in 2025 from 10% in 2024, with Giga Shanghai's export… Id: claim_13833bf04ec44d78de97d7d0 Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 Tesla's share of the Chinese NEV market decreased to 8% in 2025 from 10% in 2024, with Giga Shanghai's export share reaching 73% in January 2026. Labels: Source-linked, Low ### Tesla traded at a forward P/E near 200x and a TTM P/E exceeding 300x at a market cap of approximately $1.4 tr… Id: claim_26969c664f4a34627d000a08 Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 Tesla traded at a forward P/E near 200x and a TTM P/E exceeding 300x at a market cap of approximately $1.4 trillion to $1.48 trillion. Labels: Source-linked, Low ### Tesla reported Q2 2026 GAAP operating income of $398 million with an operating margin of 1.4%, down 57% year-… Id: claim_3726abe76f13a74a56e064a6 Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 Tesla reported Q2 2026 GAAP operating income of $398 million with an operating margin of 1.4%, down 57% year-over-year. Labels: Source-linked, Low ### In FY 2024, Tesla recognized $2.76 billion in revenue from automotive regulatory credits, reflecting a 54% ye… Id: claim_8655fe10bfaf416c054e90f7 Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 In FY 2024, Tesla recognized $2.76 billion in revenue from automotive regulatory credits, reflecting a 54% year-over-year increase. Labels: Inferred, Low ### The U.S. Id: claim_a6a068b93f7b6a22169a5522 Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 The U.S. federal $7,500 EV tax credit expired on September 30, 2025, prompting a Q3 demand pull-forward followed by sharp delivery decreases. Labels: Inferred, Low ### Tesla's domestic retail sales in China fell 45% year-over-year in January 2026 to 18,485 units, after full-ye… Id: claim_ac09c931f2ea9add2f157675 Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 Tesla's domestic retail sales in China fell 45% year-over-year in January 2026 to 18,485 units, after full-year 2025 China retail dropped 4.78%. Labels: Source-linked, Low ### Tesla's non-GAAP automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits dropped from peak levels above 25%–27%… Id: claim_c494e2df83efa5fc79ad91da Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 Tesla's non-GAAP automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits dropped from peak levels above 25%–27% in 2021. Labels: Inferred, Low ### Tesla 2025 Vehicle Deliveries and Factory Utilization Id: section_6f6ddc8910df37040d9c84bd Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 Tesla 2025 Vehicle Deliveries and Factory Utilization Labels: Inferred, Low ### Tesla Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance Id: section_7aeafdcfb74449ff8f2d7aa4 Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 Tesla Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance Labels: Inferred, Low ### NHTSA Regulatory Scrutiny of Tesla Autonomous Vehicles Id: section_98c0e059973469ac011f99a1 Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 NHTSA Regulatory Scrutiny of Tesla Autonomous Vehicles Labels: Inferred, Low ### Tesla Q3 2026 Vehicle Deliveries Id: section_ecb6ac549dec56ba8cb9c76f Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 Tesla Q3 2026 Vehicle Deliveries Labels: Inferred, Low ### BYD EV Market Growth and Pricing Id: section_f0c48c87bcaec30c80c61a58 Parent: topic_Jf5ax5C9fyYLfA9CN55Y Depth: 1 BYD EV Market Growth and Pricing Labels: Inferred, Low #### Tesla delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in full-year 2025, representing an 8-9% year-over-year decline and its sec… Id: claim_10a6369a0235657e3b549b6f Parent: section_6f6ddc8910df37040d9c84bd Depth: 2 Tesla delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in full-year 2025, representing an 8-9% year-over-year decline and its second consecutive annual drop. Labels: Source-linked, Low #### NHTSA opened audit query AQ26002 into Tesla Cybercab self-certification regarding FMVSS compliance for brake… Id: claim_3dcd920713a585eb65aee250 Parent: section_98c0e059973469ac011f99a1 Depth: 2 NHTSA opened audit query AQ26002 into Tesla Cybercab self-certification regarding FMVSS compliance for brake systems and rear visibility following its Austin deployment. Labels: Source-linked, Medium #### Tesla's 2025 automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was approximately 15.4%, as regulatory cred… Id: claim_442d332388a08f986421b836 Parent: section_7aeafdcfb74449ff8f2d7aa4 Depth: 2 Tesla's 2025 automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was approximately 15.4%, as regulatory credit revenue fell to $1.993 billion from $2.763 billion in 2024. Labels: Source-linked, Low #### Tesla's $2.76 billion in regulatory credit revenue accounted for approximately 38.6% of its total $7.15 billi… Id: claim_598e1b9a59bbd5e60ab4d02f Parent: claim_8655fe10bfaf416c054e90f7 Depth: 2 Tesla's $2.76 billion in regulatory credit revenue accounted for approximately 38.6% of its total $7.15 billion GAAP net income in FY 2024. Labels: Inferred, Low #### Tesla's 2025 net income attributable to common stockholders fell 46% year-over-year to $3.794 billion on tota… Id: claim_65e4d6b0d1eb07449700d52f Parent: section_7aeafdcfb74449ff8f2d7aa4 Depth: 2 Tesla's 2025 net income attributable to common stockholders fell 46% year-over-year to $3.794 billion on total revenue of $94.827 billion. Labels: Source-linked, Low #### BYD overtook Tesla as the global volume leader in 2025 by selling 2.26 million battery-electric vehicles vers… Id: claim_c0b9bd3bce7259672062d289 Parent: section_f0c48c87bcaec30c80c61a58 Depth: 2 BYD overtook Tesla as the global volume leader in 2025 by selling 2.26 million battery-electric vehicles versus Tesla's 1.64 million. Labels: Source-linked, Low #### NHTSA filings indicate that all documented remote takeover incidents involving Tesla Robotaxis resulted in co… Id: claim_c28b2c114922292b3836a296 Parent: section_98c0e059973469ac011f99a1 Depth: 2 NHTSA filings indicate that all documented remote takeover incidents involving Tesla Robotaxis resulted in collisions. Labels: Source-linked, High #### Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026, comprising 478,237 Model 3/Y units and 8,295 other models, marki… Id: claim_c6c811821f0b9af0d23bc60b Parent: section_ecb6ac549dec56ba8cb9c76f Depth: 2 Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026, comprising 478,237 Model 3/Y units and 8,295 other models, marking a 2.1% year-over-year drop. Labels: Source-linked, Low #### BYD implemented vehicle price cuts of up to 34% in 2025, lowering entry prices on some models to roughly $7,8… Id: claim_f17fbef5e331c5365e0a8196 Parent: section_f0c48c87bcaec30c80c61a58 Depth: 2 BYD implemented vehicle price cuts of up to 34% in 2025, lowering entry prices on some models to roughly $7,800. Labels: Inferred, Low ##### Tesla's automotive sales revenue declined 10% to $69.526 billion in 2025, with operating income dropping 38%… Id: claim_395ca5e7eaea57d451fae690 Parent: claim_65e4d6b0d1eb07449700d52f Depth: 3 Tesla's automotive sales revenue declined 10% to $69.526 billion in 2025, with operating income dropping 38% to $4.355 billion. Labels: Source-linked, Low ##### Tesla's Q4 2025 deliveries dropped 15-16% year-over-year to 418,227 vehicles. Id: claim_a0c007f714bbc64706cbf1ab Parent: claim_10a6369a0235657e3b549b6f Depth: 3 Tesla's Q4 2025 deliveries dropped 15-16% year-over-year to 418,227 vehicles. Labels: Source-linked, Low ##### Tesla's European sales fell 28% in 2025, driven by a 48% drop in Germany and a 38% drop in France. Id: claim_a5bd2a18f4186cd1f99b6d2d Parent: claim_10a6369a0235657e3b549b6f Depth: 3 Tesla's European sales fell 28% in 2025, driven by a 48% drop in Germany and a 38% drop in France. Labels: Source-linked, Low ##### Deliveries of non-Model 3/Y Tesla vehicles were reported at 8,295 in Q3 2026 following the end of Model S and… Id: claim_ae65faee358f4d017354fcf4 Parent: claim_c6c811821f0b9af0d23bc60b Depth: 3 Deliveries of non-Model 3/Y Tesla vehicles were reported at 8,295 in Q3 2026 following the end of Model S and X production. Labels: Source-linked, Low ##### Tesla's global production capacity of 2.3-2.4 million vehicles relative to 2025 deliveries of 1.64 million im… Id: claim_d31cb8c6c4c5a2eacc9bce95 Parent: claim_10a6369a0235657e3b549b6f Depth: 3 Tesla's global production capacity of 2.3-2.4 million vehicles relative to 2025 deliveries of 1.64 million implied factory utilization near 60-70%. Labels: Source-linked, Low