Research summary
Research summary
Topic summary
Postwar prosperity eroded naturally as global competitors rebuilt and demographic and productivity growth returned to historical norms.
Key research questions
- Investigate "What Happened to the American Dream?" from this distinct point of divergence: Global Normalization and Postwar Exceptionalism.
Important claims and supporting citations
According to economic historian Alexander Field, U.S. total factor productivity growth rates were higher during the Great Depression years (1929–1941) than during the postwar Golden Age (1948–1973).
During the later stages of postwar economic convergence, total factor productivity growth slowed by 3 percentage points in Germany and 2 percentage points in Japan while remaining stable in other countries.
Economic research indicates that increases in human capital did not contribute significantly to Germany and Japan's postwar productivity catch-up relative to the United States.
Japanese production in 1945 fell to 10 percent of prewar levels, but economic recovery and rehabilitation were essentially complete by 1954.
The 1953 London Debt Agreement reduced West Germany's external debt from DM 29.7 billion to DM 14.5 billion, capped debt service at 3% of export earnings, and lowered its debt ratio to approximately 10% of GDP.
While the United States had historically been a net importer of consumer goods, it recorded a net export surplus of $1 billion in that category in 1947.
German manufacturing total factor productivity was approximately half of the US level in 1950, while Japanese manufacturing TFP was one-third of the US level in 1955.
US non-manufacturing labor productivity growth declined from 2.95% (1948–1972) to 1.29% (1972–1996), during which time manufacturing's share of the US economy contracted from ~30% to 10%.
Competing explanations
According to economic historian Alexander Field, U.S. total factor productivity growth rates were higher during the Great Depression years (1929–1941) than during the postwar Golden Age (1948–1973).
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The 1953 London Debt Agreement reduced West Germany's external debt from DM 29.7 billion to DM 14.5 billion,…
The 1953 London Debt Agreement reduced West Germany's external debt from DM 29.7 billion to DM 14.5 billion, capped debt service at 3% of export earnings, and lowered its debt ratio to approximately 10% of GDP.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
While the United States had historically been a net importer of consumer goods, it recorded a net export surp…
While the United States had historically been a net importer of consumer goods, it recorded a net export surplus of $1 billion in that category in 1947.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
By 1947, the United States produced 57 percent of the world's steel, 43 percent of its electricity, and 62 pe…
By 1947, the United States produced 57 percent of the world's steel, 43 percent of its electricity, and 62 percent of its oil.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Health spending as a share of US GDP increased from 5.0% in 1960 to 8.9% in 1980, 13.3% in 2000, and 17.6% in…
Health spending as a share of US GDP increased from 5.0% in 1960 to 8.9% in 1980, 13.3% in 2000, and 17.6% in 2023.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Japanese production in 1945 fell to 10 percent of prewar levels, but economic recovery and rehabilitation wer…
Japanese production in 1945 fell to 10 percent of prewar levels, but economic recovery and rehabilitation were essentially complete by 1954.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
The US share of world GDP (PPP/Maddison-style) peaked at 29.7% in 1944 during World War II, representing the…
The US share of world GDP (PPP/Maddison-style) peaked at 29.7% in 1944 during World War II, representing the highest share reached by any country in the 1820–2025 modern series.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
West Germany's share of world manufactured exports grew from 7.3 percent in 1950 to 19.3 percent in 1960, ret…
West Germany's share of world manufactured exports grew from 7.3 percent in 1950 to 19.3 percent in 1960, returning it to its pre-1929 position.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Japanese exports did not begin recovering after World War II until the Korean War (1950–1953), when special m…
Japanese exports did not begin recovering after World War II until the Korean War (1950–1953), when special military procurement by U.S. forces stimulated local industries.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Within six months of West Germany's June 1948 currency reform, its industrial production increased from 51% t…
Within six months of West Germany's June 1948 currency reform, its industrial production increased from 51% to 78% of 1936 levels.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
International Productivity Catch-Up and Convergence
International Productivity Catch-Up and Convergence
Labels: Inferred, Low
U.S. Demographic Shifts and Labor Force Growth
U.S. Demographic Shifts and Labor Force Growth
Labels: Inferred, Low
Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment
Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment
Labels: Inferred, Low
Historical Trends in U.S. Productivity Growth
Historical Trends in U.S. Productivity Growth
Labels: Inferred, Low
In 1950, the United Kingdom was the only major industrial country whose labor productivity exceeded half of t…
In 1950, the United Kingdom was the only major industrial country whose labor productivity exceeded half of the United States level, but by 1973 major peers ranged between 50 and 75 percent of the U.S. level.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
US labor-force growth exceeded 2% annually in the 1960s and 1970s due to the baby boom, compared to a project…
US labor-force growth exceeded 2% annually in the 1960s and 1970s due to the baby boom, compared to a projected annual growth rate of 0.4% for 2023–2033.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Robert Gordon's multi-factor productivity 'one big wave' peaked between 1928–1950 and 1950–1964 before decele…
Robert Gordon's multi-factor productivity 'one big wave' peaked between 1928–1950 and 1950–1964 before decelerating, with post-1972 MFP growth returning to late-19th-century rates.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
During the later stages of postwar economic convergence, total factor productivity growth slowed by 3 percent…
During the later stages of postwar economic convergence, total factor productivity growth slowed by 3 percentage points in Germany and 2 percentage points in Japan while remaining stable in other countries.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
According to economic historian Alexander Field, U.S.
According to economic historian Alexander Field, U.S. total factor productivity growth rates were higher during the Great Depression years (1929–1941) than during the postwar Golden Age (1948–1973).
Labels: Contested, Low, known
Increased female labor-force participation and the baby-boom cohort allowed US real GDP-per-capita growth to…
Increased female labor-force participation and the baby-boom cohort allowed US real GDP-per-capita growth to remain relatively elevated between 1972 and 1996 despite slowing labor productivity.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Germany's GDP per capita rose from 50% of the US level in 1950 to 84% by 1988, while Japan's rose from one-si…
Germany's GDP per capita rose from 50% of the US level in 1950 to 84% by 1988, while Japan's rose from one-sixth to 78% over the same period.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
During the 1950s and 1960s, real per capita GDP increased by over 5 percent annually in Germany and over 8 pe…
During the 1950s and 1960s, real per capita GDP increased by over 5 percent annually in Germany and over 8 percent annually in Japan, compared to 2 percent annually in the United States.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Economic research indicates that increases in human capital did not contribute significantly to Germany and J…
Economic research indicates that increases in human capital did not contribute significantly to Germany and Japan's postwar productivity catch-up relative to the United States.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
German manufacturing total factor productivity was approximately half of the US level in 1950, while Japanese…
German manufacturing total factor productivity was approximately half of the US level in 1950, while Japanese manufacturing TFP was one-third of the US level in 1955.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
US total-economy labor productivity grew at an annual rate of 2.82% from 1948 to 1972 before slowing to 1.55%…
US total-economy labor productivity grew at an annual rate of 2.82% from 1948 to 1972 before slowing to 1.55% from 1972 to 1996, according to Robert Gordon.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
The US share of manufacturing output among ten major industrial countries declined from 61.9% in 1950 to 43.6…
The US share of manufacturing output among ten major industrial countries declined from 61.9% in 1950 to 43.6% in 1970 as Europe and Japan recovered.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
According to Angus Maddison's historical series, the U.S.
According to Angus Maddison's historical series, the U.S. share of world GDP fell from 27.3 percent in 1950 to 22.1 percent in 1973 and 20.7 percent in 2003, while Japan's share increased from 3.0 to 7.8 percent between 1950 and 1973.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Western European catch-up growth relative to the United States leveled off between 1950 and 1980 at approxima…
Western European catch-up growth relative to the United States leveled off between 1950 and 1980 at approximately 70 percent of U.S. GDP per capita rather than converging entirely.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
The manufacturing share of US nonfarm employment reached its peak at approximately 32% in May 1953 and declin…
The manufacturing share of US nonfarm employment reached its peak at approximately 32% in May 1953 and declined steadily thereafter.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Between 1948 and 1973, U.S.
Between 1948 and 1973, U.S. private nonfarm output per hour grew at a compound annual rate of 2.88 percent, of which 1.90 percentage points came from increases in total factor productivity.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Between 1950 and 1973, real GDP grew annually by 9.3% in Japan, 5.7% in West Germany, and 2.9% in the United…
Between 1950 and 1973, real GDP grew annually by 9.3% in Japan, 5.7% in West Germany, and 2.9% in the United Kingdom according to Maddison data.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
US manufacturing jobs comprised 43% of private payrolls in 1945, falling to 35% in 1955 and 33% in 1965.
US manufacturing jobs comprised 43% of private payrolls in 1945, falling to 35% in 1955 and 33% in 1965.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
The US total fertility rate fell to 1.6 by 2024, leaving the 20–29 birth cohort smaller than the 60–69 birth…
The US total fertility rate fell to 1.6 by 2024, leaving the 20–29 birth cohort smaller than the 60–69 birth cohort and constraining future labor-force growth.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Japan's per-capita GDP in 2011 prices grew more than fivefold, rising from $3,062 in 1950 to $15,484 in 1970.
Japan's per-capita GDP in 2011 prices grew more than fivefold, rising from $3,062 in 1950 to $15,484 in 1970.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
US non-manufacturing labor productivity growth declined from 2.95% (1948–1972) to 1.29% (1972–1996), during w…
US non-manufacturing labor productivity growth declined from 2.95% (1948–1972) to 1.29% (1972–1996), during which time manufacturing's share of the US economy contracted from ~30% to 10%.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known