Research summary
Research summary
Topic summary
The decentralized web was systematically dismantled by venture-backed platforms consolidating traffic into walled gardens.
Key research questions
- Investigate "What Happened to the Internet We Used to Know?" from this distinct point of divergence: Platform Enclosure and Ad Monopolies.
Important claims and supporting citations
Court records from Epic v. Google revealed 'Project Hug', in which Google paid tens of millions of dollars to approximately 20 major developers to keep their apps on the Play Store.
The ACCC estimated that for every A$100 spent on Australian online advertising excluding classifieds, A$47 went to Google and A$21 to Facebook, accounting for roughly 80% of ad growth over three years.
Gannett sued Google in June 2023 alleging ad tech monopolization, reporting a quarterly net loss of approximately $54 million during the same period.
Meta CFO Dave Wehner projected in February 2022 that Apple's App Tracking Transparency enforcement would reduce Meta's revenue by approximately $10 billion in 2022.
Analyses by SparkToro and Datos between 2022 and 2024 indicate zero-click searches account for 58% to 65% of Google search queries.
Chartbeat measured a 40% drop in publisher referral traffic from Facebook between 2017 and mid-2018 following algorithmic changes.
The European Commission fined Apple €1.84 billion in June 2024 over App Store anti-steering provisions that harmed competing music streaming services.
The FTC cleared Google's acquisition of DoubleClick in December 2007 after finding insufficient evidence that DoubleClick possessed market power or that Google could foreclose ad-intermediation competition.
Competing explanations
Texas antitrust litigation alleged that the 2018 'Jedi Blue' agreement granted Meta guaranteed win rates and speed advantages in AdX in exchange for retreating from header bidding.
Texas antitrust filings alleged that Google's 'Project Bernanke' utilized historical AdX bid data to advantage its DV360 buying tools, generating an estimated $230 million per year.
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A July 2020 market study by the UK Competition and Markets Authority found Google took over 90% of UK search…
A July 2020 market study by the UK Competition and Markets Authority found Google took over 90% of UK search ad revenue and Google and Facebook combined captured roughly 80% of UK digital display ad spending.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Analyses by SparkToro and Datos between 2022 and 2024 indicate zero-click searches account for 58% to 65% of…
Analyses by SparkToro and Datos between 2022 and 2024 indicate zero-click searches account for 58% to 65% of Google search queries.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
The European Commission fined Apple €1.84 billion in June 2024 over App Store anti-steering provisions that h…
The European Commission fined Apple €1.84 billion in June 2024 over App Store anti-steering provisions that harmed competing music streaming services.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
In December 2023, a federal jury found Google's Play Store practices to be an unlawful monopoly on all counts…
In December 2023, a federal jury found Google's Play Store practices to be an unlawful monopoly on all counts in Epic Games v. Google.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
The ACCC estimated that for every A$100 spent on Australian online advertising excluding classifieds, A$47 we…
The ACCC estimated that for every A$100 spent on Australian online advertising excluding classifieds, A$47 went to Google and A$21 to Facebook, accounting for roughly 80% of ad growth over three years.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
The DOJ alleged that Google adjusted 'Project Bernanke' in 2014 to depress Google Ads bids on publishers that…
The DOJ alleged that Google adjusted 'Project Bernanke' in 2014 to depress Google Ads bids on publishers that used header bidding to give competing exchanges earlier access.
Labels: Inferred, Medium, known
Between March 2018 and March 2024, Facebook referrals across 792 news sites plummeted 58% from 1.3 billion to…
Between March 2018 and March 2024, Facebook referrals across 792 news sites plummeted 58% from 1.3 billion to 561 million, dropping its share of external page views from 30% to 7%.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
The DOJ and 17 states filed an ad tech monopolization suit against Google in January 2023, seeking divestitur…
The DOJ and 17 states filed an ad tech monopolization suit against Google in January 2023, seeking divestiture of Google's ad manager suite.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Gannett sued Google in June 2023 alleging ad tech monopolization, reporting a quarterly net loss of approxima…
Gannett sued Google in June 2023 alleging ad tech monopolization, reporting a quarterly net loss of approximately $54 million during the same period.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
The UK CMA estimated that Google and Facebook captured roughly 80% of all UK search and display advertising s…
The UK CMA estimated that Google and Facebook captured roughly 80% of all UK search and display advertising spending in 2019.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Meta blocked all Australian news content on its platform for five days in February 2021 in response to Austra…
Meta blocked all Australian news content on its platform for five days in February 2021 in response to Australia's News Media Bargaining Code.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Texas antitrust litigation alleged that the 2018 'Jedi Blue' agreement granted Meta guaranteed win rates and…
Texas antitrust litigation alleged that the 2018 'Jedi Blue' agreement granted Meta guaranteed win rates and speed advantages in AdX in exchange for retreating from header bidding.
Labels: Contested, Medium, known
Google eliminated the requirement that publisher pages use AMP to qualify for Top Stories in May 2021 followi…
Google eliminated the requirement that publisher pages use AMP to qualify for Top Stories in May 2021 following litigation scrutiny over AMP's alleged speed advantages for Google Exchange.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Chartbeat measured a 40% drop in publisher referral traffic from Facebook between 2017 and mid-2018 following…
Chartbeat measured a 40% drop in publisher referral traffic from Facebook between 2017 and mid-2018 following algorithmic changes.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
Similarweb data from 2024 indicated that some news publishers experienced a 30% to 60% decline in Google sear…
Similarweb data from 2024 indicated that some news publishers experienced a 30% to 60% decline in Google search referral traffic following the rollout of AI Overviews.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
A 2020 PwC study analyzing roughly £100 million in UK programmatic ad spending found that publishers received…
A 2020 PwC study analyzing roughly £100 million in UK programmatic ad spending found that publishers received an average of only 51% of advertiser expenditure.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Texas antitrust filings alleged that Google's 'Project Bernanke' utilized historical AdX bid data to advantag…
Texas antitrust filings alleged that Google's 'Project Bernanke' utilized historical AdX bid data to advantage its DV360 buying tools, generating an estimated $230 million per year.
Labels: Contested, Medium, known
Reach PLC reported a 15% year-over-year decline in 2023 digital revenue, attributing it to falling Facebook a…
Reach PLC reported a 15% year-over-year decline in 2023 digital revenue, attributing it to falling Facebook and Google referral traffic alongside lower programmatic yields.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Internal Google estimates cited by the DOJ revealed the company retained an average of more than 30% of adver…
Internal Google estimates cited by the DOJ revealed the company retained an average of more than 30% of advertising dollars flowing through its ad-tech products.
Labels: Inferred, Medium, known
Google implemented 'Unified Pricing Rules' in 2019 to prevent publishers from setting differentiated price fl…
Google implemented 'Unified Pricing Rules' in 2019 to prevent publishers from setting differentiated price floors between AdX and rival header bidding exchanges.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Facebook disclosed in 2016 that its reported video viewership metrics during the 2015–2017 'pivot to video' e…
Facebook disclosed in 2016 that its reported video viewership metrics during the 2015–2017 'pivot to video' era were overstated by 60% to 80%, subsequently settling an advertiser lawsuit in 2019.
Labels: Inferred, Medium, known
A 2014 study by Seamans and Zhu in Management Science estimated that Craigslist absorbed roughly $5 billion p…
A 2014 study by Seamans and Zhu in Management Science estimated that Craigslist absorbed roughly $5 billion per year in classified ad revenue formerly captured by newspapers.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Meta CFO Dave Wehner projected in February 2022 that Apple's App Tracking Transparency enforcement would redu…
Meta CFO Dave Wehner projected in February 2022 that Apple's App Tracking Transparency enforcement would reduce Meta's revenue by approximately $10 billion in 2022.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
The FTC cleared Google's acquisition of DoubleClick in December 2007 after finding insufficient evidence that…
The FTC cleared Google's acquisition of DoubleClick in December 2007 after finding insufficient evidence that DoubleClick possessed market power or that Google could foreclose ad-intermediation competition.
Labels: Source-linked, Low, known
A 2020 PwC study found an unaccounted 'unknown delta' representing 15% of total advertiser expenditure across…
A 2020 PwC study found an unaccounted 'unknown delta' representing 15% of total advertiser expenditure across the programmatic supply chain.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
PwC could audit only 31 million out of 267 million impressions (12%) end-to-end between participating adverti…
PwC could audit only 31 million out of 267 million impressions (12%) end-to-end between participating advertisers and publishers due to data refusal or aggregation by intermediaries.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known
Court records from Epic v.
Court records from Epic v. Google revealed 'Project Hug', in which Google paid tens of millions of dollars to approximately 20 major developers to keep their apps on the Play Store.
Labels: Source-linked, Medium, known
In April 2025, U.S.
In April 2025, U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema ruled that Google unlawfully monopolized the publisher ad server (DFP/Ad Manager) and ad exchange (AdX) markets by tying the two products to foreclose competition.
Labels: Inferred, Medium, known
A September 16, 2026 ad-tech court remedy required Google to integrate AdX and DFP with the open-source Prebi…
A September 16, 2026 ad-tech court remedy required Google to integrate AdX and DFP with the open-source Prebid system and permit publishers to export their data.
Labels: Inferred, Medium, known
Google's 2009 'Dynamic Allocation' gave its AdX exchange real-time last-look access to publisher impressions,…
Google's 2009 'Dynamic Allocation' gave its AdX exchange real-time last-look access to publisher impressions, which was ruled anticompetitive tying at trial.
Labels: Inferred, Low, known