# Did AI Value Capture Pool Almost Entirely in Compute and Cloud Infrastructure?: 40 Sourced Claims, Contested Facts & Evidence Capital gains from generative AI have concentrated primarily in chipmakers and cloud vendors rather than application software. Authors: djwide HTML: https://moyomap.com/maps/did-ai-value-capture Markdown: https://moyomap.com/maps/did-ai-value-capture.md License: HTML and markdown are for reading and citation. Bulk copying and AI training need a written license. See /terms and /developers#maps-data. Cite a claim as: MoyoMap, "Did AI Value Capture Pool Almost Entirely in Compute and Cloud Infrastructure?: 40 Sourced Claims, Contested Facts & Evidence", claim {id}, https://moyomap.com/maps/did-ai-value-capture.md#{id}. “Moyo, a product of SenTeGuard Inc.” ### SK Hynix reported its High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) production was sold out through 2025 as early as May 2024,… Id: claim_62ef000cd69cff9270db51aa Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 SK Hynix reported its High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) production was sold out through 2025 as early as May 2024, commanding pricing approximately five times that of standard DRAM. Labels: Inferred, Low, known ### Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta collectively guided to roughly $300 billion or more in 2025 capital exp… Id: claim_b1fc43fc028da192d8b4fcf1 Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta collectively guided to roughly $300 billion or more in 2025 capital expenditures, primarily driven by AI data center buildouts. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known ### Rental pricing on spot markets for Nvidia H100 GPUs dropped from roughly $8 per hour in 2023 to under $2–$3 p… Id: claim_c2329f746be8e7a3a3973d75 Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 Rental pricing on spot markets for Nvidia H100 GPUs dropped from roughly $8 per hour in 2023 to under $2–$3 per hour by late 2024 or early 2025. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known ### Nvidia's board authorized an additional $80.0 billion share repurchase and increased its quarterly dividend f… Id: claim_cd62e61a7aa902e73aefc76b Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 Nvidia's board authorized an additional $80.0 billion share repurchase and increased its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share on May 18, 2026. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known ### Nvidia reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, with GAAP net income of $120.07… Id: claim_d73faa81a68debd6b780e349 Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 Nvidia reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, with GAAP net income of $120.07 billion and a GAAP operating margin above 60%. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known ### TSMC 2024 Revenue and Packaging Capacity Id: section_050b96468b8b8982d460b0fb Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 TSMC 2024 Revenue and Packaging Capacity Labels: Inferred, Low ### CoreWeave Financials and Debt Structure Id: section_196cf8d2735e3e1bbae047df Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 CoreWeave Financials and Debt Structure Labels: Inferred, Low ### Nvidia Q1 FY27 Financial Results Id: section_304e528094336e9d3d95fd97 Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 Nvidia Q1 FY27 Financial Results Labels: Inferred, Low ### TSMC 2026 Operational and Financial Performance Id: section_3057a3fa26074dab637691fa Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 TSMC 2026 Operational and Financial Performance Labels: Inferred, Low ### AI Software Margins and Infrastructure Costs Id: section_48306626c16ad7055f98792b Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 AI Software Margins and Infrastructure Costs Labels: Inferred, Low ### OpenAI Hardware Partnerships and Procurement Agreements Id: section_6826ab761a9d04d84713c5dd Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 OpenAI Hardware Partnerships and Procurement Agreements Labels: Inferred, Low ### AI Model Developer Serving Costs and Financial Losses Id: section_a232ac5867ed5758530cfae7 Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 AI Model Developer Serving Costs and Financial Losses Labels: Inferred, Low ### David Cahn AI Capex and Revenue Gap Analysis Id: section_ad4909fdedc711c8dcd57c14 Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 David Cahn AI Capex and Revenue Gap Analysis Labels: Inferred, Low ### Microsoft AI Business Performance and Margins Id: section_b42ddcc2703967a6f6f77a8e Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 Microsoft AI Business Performance and Margins Labels: Inferred, Low ### Nvidia Q2 FY27 Financial Results Id: section_ef05cf49071d73df1b89f687 Parent: topic_mFEvc4V4Iyp6e3PT9Gz4 Depth: 1 Nvidia Q2 FY27 Financial Results Labels: Inferred, Low #### For Q1 FY27, Nvidia reported net income of $58.3 billion on revenue of $81.6 billion, with GAAP gross margin… Id: claim_0b64ecc67ec93192b77a75ce Parent: section_304e528094336e9d3d95fd97 Depth: 2 For Q1 FY27, Nvidia reported net income of $58.3 billion on revenue of $81.6 billion, with GAAP gross margin rising to 74.9% from 60.5% YoY. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known #### TSMC reported Q2 2026 revenue of NT$1,270.38B ($40.20B), a gross margin of 67.7%, operating margin of 60.3%,… Id: claim_10a8e5651555e7679cef7a99 Parent: section_3057a3fa26074dab637691fa Depth: 2 TSMC reported Q2 2026 revenue of NT$1,270.38B ($40.20B), a gross margin of 67.7%, operating margin of 60.3%, and net profit margin of 55.6%, with net income up 77.4% YoY. Labels: Inferred, Low, known #### Nvidia's Q2 FY27 revenue reached $96.2 billion (up 106% YoY), driven by Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion… Id: claim_1626333258a82a2c3d85cde4 Parent: section_ef05cf49071d73df1b89f687 Depth: 2 Nvidia's Q2 FY27 revenue reached $96.2 billion (up 106% YoY), driven by Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion (up 117% YoY). Labels: Source-linked, Low, known #### Microsoft reported that its AI business exceeded a $13 billion annual revenue run-rate in January 2025, repre… Id: claim_529e3c460a3df436318e2500 Parent: section_b42ddcc2703967a6f6f77a8e Depth: 2 Microsoft reported that its AI business exceeded a $13 billion annual revenue run-rate in January 2025, representing a 175% year-over-year increase. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known #### Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith stated in a January 2025 blog post that Microsoft alone committed approximate… Id: claim_545cd14282b5b726113e7b87 Parent: claim_b1fc43fc028da192d8b4fcf1 Depth: 2 Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith stated in a January 2025 blog post that Microsoft alone committed approximately $80 billion in FY2025 capex for AI data centers. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known #### ICONIQ reported in January 2026 that 84% of scaling-stage B2B AI companies saw gross-margin erosion of six pe… Id: claim_5789d47ca14d1a7be7174821 Parent: section_48306626c16ad7055f98792b Depth: 2 ICONIQ reported in January 2026 that 84% of scaling-stage B2B AI companies saw gross-margin erosion of six percentage points or more due to AI infrastructure expenses. Labels: Inferred, Low, known #### TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity was fully booked through 2025 while roughly doubling each year from… Id: claim_58be2bcde8812aea21fa1e39 Parent: section_050b96468b8b8982d460b0fb Depth: 2 TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity was fully booked through 2025 while roughly doubling each year from 2023 to 2025. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known #### OpenAI's October 2025 agreement with AMD included warrants allowing acquisition of up to 160 million AMD shar… Id: claim_695b66ba3fa91ff79facc6f3 Parent: section_6826ab761a9d04d84713c5dd Depth: 2 OpenAI's October 2025 agreement with AMD included warrants allowing acquisition of up to 160 million AMD shares (~10% equity) tied to chip procurement milestones. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known #### TSMC guided Q4 2026 revenue to $52.3B–$54.3B and raised its full-year 2026 capex guidance to $60–$64 billion. Id: claim_7682f10e3e53bdf35cbdb042 Parent: section_3057a3fa26074dab637691fa Depth: 2 TSMC guided Q4 2026 revenue to $52.3B–$54.3B and raised its full-year 2026 capex guidance to $60–$64 billion. Labels: Inferred, Low, known #### High-Performance Computing accounted for 68% of TSMC's Q3 2026 revenue, while smartphone revenue fell to 21%,… Id: claim_81274479344b0a5954ead565 Parent: section_3057a3fa26074dab637691fa Depth: 2 High-Performance Computing accounted for 68% of TSMC's Q3 2026 revenue, while smartphone revenue fell to 21%, with quarterly net income hitting a record NT$763.06B. Labels: Inferred, Low, known #### TSMC controls approximately 73% of the global advanced foundry market, with CoWoS packaging capacity fully so… Id: claim_9e006e333d1b42ca3bdf8687 Parent: section_3057a3fa26074dab637691fa Depth: 2 TSMC controls approximately 73% of the global advanced foundry market, with CoWoS packaging capacity fully sold out on lead times exceeding one year. Labels: Inferred, Low, known #### A September 2025 deal between OpenAI and Nvidia involved a commitment of up to $100 billion conditioned on Op… Id: claim_daa19d80a658f6f305020bf8 Parent: section_6826ab761a9d04d84713c5dd Depth: 2 A September 2025 deal between OpenAI and Nvidia involved a commitment of up to $100 billion conditioned on OpenAI deploying at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia hardware. Labels: Source-linked, Medium, known #### Internal OpenAI documents reported by The New York Times showed the company lost approximately $5 billion on… Id: claim_eb9331a3a538565d7b9c8e44 Parent: section_a232ac5867ed5758530cfae7 Depth: 2 Internal OpenAI documents reported by The New York Times showed the company lost approximately $5 billion on roughly $3.7 billion in revenue in 2024, driven primarily by inference compute expenses. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known #### David Cahn of Sequoia Capital calculated that AI companies required roughly $600 billion in annual revenue to… Id: claim_ef061dc1937674b749031035 Parent: section_ad4909fdedc711c8dcd57c14 Depth: 2 David Cahn of Sequoia Capital calculated that AI companies required roughly $600 billion in annual revenue to justify the capex implied by Nvidia's data-center run-rate, leaving an estimated gap of approximately $500 billion. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known #### Anthropic expended the majority of its 2024 revenue on model serving, resulting in gross margins estimated ne… Id: claim_efd2d1fd5f6867921b328e17 Parent: section_a232ac5867ed5758530cfae7 Depth: 2 Anthropic expended the majority of its 2024 revenue on model serving, resulting in gross margins estimated near or below 50%. Labels: Inferred, Low, known #### CoreWeave's March 2025 S-1 registration statement reported 2024 revenue of $1.92 billion, a net loss of $863… Id: claim_f2c94f841006eb331997064b Parent: section_196cf8d2735e3e1bbae047df Depth: 2 CoreWeave's March 2025 S-1 registration statement reported 2024 revenue of $1.92 billion, a net loss of $863 million, and roughly 77% customer concentration across two clients, including Microsoft at approximately 62%. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known #### TSMC's monthly revenue in August 2026 hit NT$514.8 billion, a 53.3% YoY increase, bringing Taiwan's August ex… Id: claim_fc3449e8f7beccfa63985e04 Parent: section_3057a3fa26074dab637691fa Depth: 2 TSMC's monthly revenue in August 2026 hit NT$514.8 billion, a 53.3% YoY increase, bringing Taiwan's August exports to a record US$82.4 billion. Labels: Inferred, Low, known ##### Nvidia's GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were both reported at 75.0% for Q2 FY27. Id: claim_154ff12d319c25c30e376998 Parent: claim_1626333258a82a2c3d85cde4 Depth: 3 Nvidia's GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were both reported at 75.0% for Q2 FY27. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known ##### Average AI product gross margins dropped to 52% (compared to 70–80% for traditional SaaS), with inference cos… Id: claim_2308f0097dc1ad88f9197917 Parent: claim_5789d47ca14d1a7be7174821 Depth: 3 Average AI product gross margins dropped to 52% (compared to 70–80% for traditional SaaS), with inference costs accounting for roughly 23% of total revenue at scaling companies. Labels: Inferred, Low, known ##### Hyperscalers accounted for only about 50% of Nvidia's Data Center revenue in Q1 FY27, with the remainder comi… Id: claim_696e405c1fa6c5bb1abee37b Parent: claim_0b64ecc67ec93192b77a75ce Depth: 3 Hyperscalers accounted for only about 50% of Nvidia's Data Center revenue in Q1 FY27, with the remainder coming from AI clouds, industrial, enterprise, and sovereign customers. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known ##### CoreWeave held approximately $8 billion in debt secured directly by its inventory of GPUs, following a debt f… Id: claim_d68f04f0b216f7e222aa4aa9 Parent: claim_f2c94f841006eb331997064b Depth: 3 CoreWeave held approximately $8 billion in debt secured directly by its inventory of GPUs, following a debt financing model initiated with Magnetar Capital in 2023. Labels: Inferred, Low, known ##### Nvidia booked zero Data Center Hopper shipments to China in Q1 FY27 compared to $4.6 billion in the previous… Id: claim_df626ecc8f755611f93eb9c2 Parent: claim_0b64ecc67ec93192b77a75ce Depth: 3 Nvidia booked zero Data Center Hopper shipments to China in Q1 FY27 compared to $4.6 billion in the previous year, yet overall Data Center revenue grew 92% YoY. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known ##### Nvidia's Data Center networking revenue reached $14.8 billion in Q1 FY27, representing a 199% year-over-year… Id: claim_e6eb57b45e202c7f85c100ad Parent: claim_0b64ecc67ec93192b77a75ce Depth: 3 Nvidia's Data Center networking revenue reached $14.8 billion in Q1 FY27, representing a 199% year-over-year increase. Labels: Source-linked, Low, known ##### TSMC CFO Wendell Huang attributed a 1.3 percentage point dip in Q3 2026 gross margin (to 66.4%) to the ramp d… Id: claim_f7c682b5ff367ce6c1f081a6 Parent: claim_81274479344b0a5954ead565 Depth: 3 TSMC CFO Wendell Huang attributed a 1.3 percentage point dip in Q3 2026 gross margin (to 66.4%) to the ramp dilution of the 2nm N2 process rather than pricing pressure. Labels: Inferred, Low, known ###### Inference costs increased from 20% to 23% of total spend as AI products matured, while talent expenses decrea… Id: claim_cccbedf1cd9ee33de4b4ef21 Parent: claim_2308f0097dc1ad88f9197917 Depth: 4 Inference costs increased from 20% to 23% of total spend as AI products matured, while talent expenses decreased from 32% to 26%. Labels: Inferred, Low, known